Desperado — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate (2024)

#1Dolce Vita on 09.11.24 at 1:20 pm

It will get better Canada, esp. for you Kids, have faith in the country as I do.

If you were to ask me during the 80s about the possibility of living a care free lifestyle in retirement, let alone in Italy, I would have dropped you on the spot.

KIDS, my generation were lost for a near decade economically after the early 80s recession to be slammed with yet another recession in the early 90s.

We got thru it and you will too, the current times.

In retirement you will look back at those times, as I do now, and they will seem but a blur from whatever slice of heaven you chose to retire in.

DEUS VIDET ET DEUS PROVIDET

#2Dolce Vita on 09.11.24 at 1:26 pm

Garth, been waiting for the right time to Comment about the latest Labour Force Survey for August, but it seems as of late there is no right time.

———————

5 days ago StatCan reported that the August Unemployment Rate was:

6.6%

agreed to by many as bad news.

In fact, it was worse.

The Labour Force Survey numbers are Seasonally Adjusted. They take the actual or Unadjusted numbers and statistically smooth them to eliminate the peaks and valleys during the year.

The Unadjusted August Unemployment Rate was:

7.5%

Seasonal Adjusting “catches up” with the Unadjusted numbers eventually so expect Sept and Oct to report worsening unemployment numbers.

It should turn around, as in drop, at XMas as many Part Time jobs are created then.

Just a heads up Canada.

———————

To view for yourselves, go here, click on Data Type, uncheck Trend-cycle, check Unadjusted and click Apply:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=1410028701

Scroll down to the Unemployment rate rows.

—> It will get better Canada.

#3active on 09.11.24 at 1:28 pm

she needs to sell the condo obviously and hopefully get $560K for it … then write the developer a cheque….take it as a learning lesson. and my gawd, 9% on $600K? lmao….time to eDuCatE yourself Janice…

#4Tom on 09.11.24 at 1:31 pm

Those ugly hi rises that are ruining the character of Vancouver are environmentally destructive and wasteful. Many are shoddily built. I wouldn’t pay half that amount–especially to live anywhere near Boundary.

#5crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.24 at 1:36 pm

A 9% mortgage…from the developer….my god.

Caveat Emptor ( Let the buyer beware) is going to be heard again and again and again on this blog over the next 12-24 months.
The Bank of Mom and Dad isnt going to help this time.
Its started.

#6The Bait on 09.11.24 at 1:41 pm

#129 Observer on 09.11.24 at 10:05 am
#116 The Bait on 09.11.24 at 7:53 am
One thing was fascinating yesterday…

Flipping through NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN and watching everyone on every panel declare that Harris soundly beat Trump in the debate.

It was like some type of narrative playbook flashback from two years ago.

It was especially funny because we just watched it. We saw with our own eyes and these panels were telling us we did not see what we just saw at all. Funny.

^^^^^^^^^^^^
You need your eyes and ears checked buddy.
^^^^^^^^^^^^

Knock Down: Why did you keep my China tariffs?

Knock Down: President can close the boarder anytime.

Knock Out Punch: Why don’t you just do these things right now? You’re in the White House. You’re the VP. Wake Joe up from this 4PM nap and go do it.

#141 Faron on 09.11.24 at 11:59 am

This person probably also watched the Superbowl and was like”every channel declared KC the winner after the game like there was some kind of narrative playbook”.

^^^^^^^^^^^^
Super Bowl has an actual score.

“Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?”

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/11/economy/inflation-rate-spending/index.html

#7Bigbird2 on 09.11.24 at 1:42 pm

Oh Canada, just another $729,750 of misallocated capital contributing to our continuing decline in productivity.
We are a country of greater fools.

#8TurnerNation on 09.11.24 at 1:42 pm

Welcome to new Blog Dogs.
A reminder this is a Unionized comment section.
We WALK not run on this blog.
I hope not to tell you again.

If the Blog Owner asks you a question you may reply with
– That’s not in my job description.
– It was like that when I got here.
– I wasn’t trained on this.

What are you some Management Stiff sent to spy on us?

#9Islandgirl on 09.11.24 at 1:44 pm

OMG, I just entered the details from Janice into a mortgage calculator and got this:
Over the 20-year amortization period, you will:
have made 240 monthly (12x per year) payments of $5,335.14.
have paid $600,000.00 in principal, $680,432.88 in interest, for a total of $1,280,432.88.
So the idea that buying is better than renting in this case is so crazy it’s not even funny. If I understand it correctly, she would have to sell it for a minimum of 1.5 million (that includes a buffer for insurance and property taxes) to make back the money she poured into it. If she had rented for $4000 a month she would have paid $960000 over the same time period. If she saved the difference she would have $540,000 left over in savings after renting, or $0 buying. CRAZY

#10InfLIEtion on 09.11.24 at 1:48 pm

#41 Shawn on 09.08.24 at 3:49 pm
Idle dollars?

#22 InfLIEtion on 09.08.24 at 2:43 pm

“Show us the data. Where are these idle dollars exactly?”

*********************************
Idle dollars are a myth. Watch It’s a Wonderful Life.

One man’s savings are another man’s house and his debt thereon.

Wealth, although measured in dollars, is not dollars as such and is not generally idle. And can only be realised in dollars by selling for dollars.

Dollars created by bank lending (customer borrowing) remains in banks – until a loan is paid off which erases dollars, believe it or not.

Just another frankenumber to stack dollars into GDP and pretend there is growth while the dollars just swirl and spin and generate no productivity.

#11Villageboy on 09.11.24 at 1:51 pm

#9 Islandgirl

…paid $600,000.00 in principal, $680,432.88 in interest…

I don’t know what you’re implying Islandgirl, but this is absolutely NOT usury.

It’s simply bank profits for shareholders.

Mind your Ps and Qs.

/s

Not a bank. – Garth

#12Andrew on 09.11.24 at 1:55 pm

I must say, I sure am happy the government “coddles” me as a tenant to protect me from paying for the ridiculous investment blunders of people like this.

Janice was occupying her unit, not renting it out. She pays, not you. – Garth

#13Ustabe on 09.11.24 at 2:05 pm

In the old days there were occasional raids on Canadian-Chinese restaurants and charges laid for having cat meat in the freezer. At least in our area, mid-Island, when I was a youth.

Cheers, R

Absolute racist trash.

I spent 37 years in the restaurant business. Started in the dish pit and ended up in ownership. Did everything but cook. Was a two term President of the Restaurant and Foodservices Association of BC, Victoria Branch.

I have a plaque, decades old, that says I was Restaurateur of the Year in Victoria. That particular joint was well reviewed in Where to Eat in Canada, sort of our home grown Michelin guide. Same restaurant was featured with two other Island ones, in Bon Appetite magazine during the run up to Expo 86.

Those are my bona fides that allow me to unequivocally say Chinese restaurants do not and have not served cat meat.

That is the same racist crap as Vance and Trump repeating the Haitians are eating your pets and the geese from your parks meme going around.

There actually is a reason (among many) no restaurateur would serve cat meat…the yield is too small. Way too much work to pick the meat off a cat’s carcass.

Russ, you have let me down. Moderator has too, why allow that racist junk to populate the comment section? To what end is that a good idea?

#14Dolce Vita on 09.11.24 at 2:07 pm

Off Topic – Turisti Tips and Much More

Last Salvo Garth if you will let me.

———————————-

1. KIDS.

WTF is up with your crazed obsession of gathering in our piazzas to sing

Sarà Perché Ti Amo

year after bloody year?

For those here in Italia and wishing to join in, apparently KID GROUND ZERO is in Piazza Trilussa, Rome (this 5 weeks ago on a Sunday night) – turn AUDIO on:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-QXXeeNR5r/

2. Still HOT here in Southern Italia, low to mid 30s (upper 20s according to lying Meteo.it), whilst the rest of Europe colder than a witches papilla – to wit, the Amalfi Coast 4 days ago, Mare Nostrum temp still about 30C:

https://www.instagram.com/p/C_k5m-WSkrk/

Make a side trip there if in Italia, you will thank me.

(and they island hop with ferries taking a month of Sundays in Greece or opt for Alcoholics Anonymous bottled water priced beer in Tawdry Spain)

3. This Saturday is the Madonna della Consolazione feast in Reggio di Calabria where I live, kicked off by this procession, short video of the faithful from last year, 25sec long, 25m from my front door… oh joy:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/l0RdZISkJGY

Apparently and according to my neighbor, the Madonna fest is ALSO an excuse for 1 week of REVELRY & DEBAUCHERY Reggio style. Plane and train loads of turisti coming into Reggio all week long. Double, oh joy.

Finally, a

LIFE SAVING TURISTI TIP

if in Italy now.

Never, ever violate this or you will face IMMEDIATE DEPORTATION back to Canada:

https://www.tiktok.com/@la.repubblica/video/7239317728543198491?lang=en

the Instagram version:

https://www.instagram.com/rometravelers/reel/Cufn2msIItg/

(note clueless blonde, black tee-shirt American tourist that thinks we’re kidding)

—> Your Welcome.

Send thank you cash to Garth, he will see it thru to me.

——————————-

Enjoy yourselves Canada if you are here in Italia and many of you are as it has been reported more of you opted to come to Il Bel Paese than vacation in the USA or Mexico this Autumn.

Me waving back at you from the toe tip at Scylla and Charybdis:

https://www.instagram.com/p/C3BuSquLrrX/

PS:

Giorgia thanks you Canada for the GDP boost.

#15The Bait on 09.11.24 at 2:13 pm

#129 Observer on 09.11.24 at 10:05 am
#116 The Bait on 09.11.24 at 7:53 am
One thing was fascinating yesterday…

Flipping through NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN and watching everyone on every panel declare that Harris soundly beat Trump in the debate.

It was like some type of narrative playbook flashback from two years ago.

It was especially funny because we just watched it. We saw with our own eyes and these panels were telling us we did not see what we just saw at all. Funny.

^^^^^^^^^^^^
You need your eyes and ears checked buddy.
^^^^^^^^^^^^

Choke Out: Afganistan withdraw was a absolute disaster. You completely fudged a clear plan and neglected negotiated responsibility to result in the disaster we had.

Choke Out: Russia would have never done it if I was president. No wars on my watch!

…”But I met Zelenskyy 5 times”

Check Out again: Is that the guy that Harris should have been meeting and negotiating with?

Rear Naked Choke (RNC): …she had meetings with Zelenskyy and Putin invaded 3 days after she left. Some negotiator.

Submission: Why don’t we end this debate right and and go do these things you say you’re going to do for our country. You’ve had three and a half years to do them. You’re in office right now!

Absolute total knockout for Trump on substance.

P.S. What the hell is an “Opportunity Economy?” Just a phrase. Anyone can start a business in the US, and there are plenty of programs in place to do so.

#16Sail Away on 09.11.24 at 2:18 pm

Thanks Garth for yet another cautionary tale. They are numerous and always painful.

The ability for unsophisticated and first-time buyers to enter into massive debt is a real issue. Predatory timeshares and high vehicle APRs and credit cards are one thing, but RE is many levels worse, allowing young people to rush headlong into lifetime financial devastation.

Sad

#17catzndogz on 09.11.24 at 2:20 pm

The fool and his money will soon be separated.

#18The Bait on 09.11.24 at 2:24 pm

ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN…all of them reporting on the rematch without using the full Trump quote.

If you can’t see the bias in the media, you’ve gone newsblind.

>>
Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said in a statement after Tuesday night’s debate hosted by ABC News. “That’s what they saw tonight and what they should see at a second debate in October. Vice President Harris is ready for a second debate. Is Donald Trump?”

Trump, meanwhile, compared Harris to a prize-fighter who just lost and wants a rematch.

“When you’re a prize fighter and you lose you immediately want a new fight — you want a rematch. The guy that won is sort of happy and thinking about it.”

#19DON on 09.11.24 at 2:27 pm

#4 Tom on 09.11.24 at 1:31 pm
Those ugly hi rises that are ruining the character of Vancouver are environmentally destructive and wasteful. Many are shoddily built. I wouldn’t pay half that amount–especially to live anywhere near Boundary.

***********
In the distant past I rented a suite in one of the buildings behind in the picture. Not really a nice area if you know the Hood. The River where bodies are found.

Nicer than the downtown east side, but still in the center of gang land.

#20ElGatoNeroYVR on 09.11.24 at 2:29 pm

Poor decision , in hindsight yes , at the time…still yes for sure.
As a counterveling point I would like to say that only those of us who live here in the GVA understand the pressure to buy ,no matter what , no matter the price that one is exposed to. The only thing everyone talks about ,at work ,at home ,at the grocery store , in the airport is how RE is always a good investment ,and it always goes up backed up with decades of data. If you rent you are definitley seen as a second class; loser who failed to launch.
It takes a strong character and fiancial knowledge to resist to that kind of pressure. Those that are the 20 people or so on this blog who rent :-)

We need more financial education for sure ,though with the prices where they are most people are saved from themselves as they can’t afford to buy anyway.
But seriously ,who thought a 700K+ condo the size of a 2 car garage on a busy road where the bank won’t qualify you to begin with(hence the developer mortgage) was a good idea?

#21Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.11.24 at 2:37 pm

Remember the 1990s? Coming to a neighbourhood near you, soon!!

Enjoy your soon-to-be-repossessed Audis, all you Shysters!

#22Gordo on 09.11.24 at 2:40 pm

Oh well.

That’s the was she goes Rickey.

Like empires, markets rise and fall.

#23Dr. V on 09.11.24 at 2:47 pm

Ouch.

#24Flop… on 09.11.24 at 2:50 pm

Since Mrs Flop and I are both North American immigrants, if she can’t come up with any ideas for dinner tonight, maybe I’ll suggest the cat /dog combo.

At least in Australia they only throw a shrimp on the barby…

M50BC

#25Caffeine Monkey on 09.11.24 at 2:51 pm

Even if she manages to pay off the condo, if the building used a window wall system, it will likely start to leak within 20 years and require expensive repairs and ongoing maintenance. Many condo buyers, desperate to own something, are probably unaware of this issue.

https://www.cbc.ca/toronto/features/condos/pdf/condo_conundrum.pdf

#26Dr. V on 09.11.24 at 2:54 pm

71 Shawn

“Some FAST government workers.”
————————————————————–

Applied to renew passports. Made appointment. Went armed with completed applications and photos.

Got in line to front Kiosk. Quick review of applications
revealed one box we still had to fill in. Done. Told to sit but be prepared for a wait as they were down one on staff. Those with no appt were being told 1-1.5 hours.

Only waited a couple of minutes before nice young man called us. Sat at his booth while he entered stuff on computer. Paid fees and he gave us instructions on how to check application status on-line. Back out in only 15 minutes after booked time of appointment.

On-line shows application in process. Fingers crossed.

#27Mean Gene on 09.11.24 at 2:55 pm

Holy sheep poop batman.

#28Captain Uppa on 09.11.24 at 2:59 pm

I learned a valuable lesson from my parents who owned a condo in the Late 80s-Early 90s; DON’T OWN ONE. My parents were relatively new immigrants and everyone else was doing it. They didn’t know better and paid the price.

History repeats itself.

PS – on a happy note, they persevered, worked hard and did ok in the end.

#29Faron on 09.11.24 at 3:00 pm

#6 The Bait on 09.11.24 at 1:41 pm

The stock market gives us an objective (maybe even right leaning) score. DJT down 11%, GEO group down 8%. TSLA off as much as 4% and still down on an up day in tech. DJT will zero when Trump loses. GEO will see far fewer contracts and profit less from the human misery it’s operations induce. The Tesla CEO will fail to attain a grasp on federal power. Etc.

Harris 1, Trump 0.

#30Richard L on 09.11.24 at 3:02 pm

In a way, mortgages are our national ponzi scheme. Buy bank shares.

#31Dave on 09.11.24 at 3:03 pm

There is a market for tiny condos and developers felt they were lucrative to build, so they built lots. But the market is limited, perhaps more limited than those building them appreciated.

So now with an increase in supply as more projects are being completed and a reduction in demand because of affordability issues, there is and will continue to be a price adjustment.

Like the people who moved to smaller communities during COVID, this is another part of the real estate market that is facing challenging times.

Most people want single family homes or condos that comfortably accommodate a family of several people in a decent location. They do not want places far from major cities or where they work and they do not want tiny condos that allow no room for family members or growth.

Obviously the least desirable places will be the ones most effected by a slower real estate market like the one several of our major cities have experienced. And some people are now learning a hard lesson that the price of all real estate does not always go up all the time.

#32Shawn on 09.11.24 at 3:16 pm

#144 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.24 at 12:15 pm

@#139 Shawn

Cape Breton isnt exactly known as a paragon of entrepreneurship.

Govt grants, welfare, EI and seasonal work are its mainstay for at least the last 50 years.
The money pumped into Sidney Steel (Devco) in the 1970’s would have made every laid off former mine and mill worker a millionaire if the cash had been handed directly to the workers that were all, eventually laid off.
The municipal, provincial and federal politics in CB harkens back to a bygone era of favors, backhanders and bottles.
Sad…but True.

************************************
True, especially in the past, but a number of families there have been entrepreneurs and employers for many decades.

Sydney Steel has been gone for about 40 years.

DEVCO (Cape Breton Development Corporation) took over the coal mines and closed them all also about40 years ago.

A lot of OAS and GIS cheques going to Cape Breton these days.

I’m not so sure about Welfare and EI. There has been severe labour shortages there in the past few years – now abating somewhat. All the ambitious young people wisely left for Alberta.

You need to visit again. Get up to date.

#33chalkie on 09.11.24 at 3:20 pm

Just when you thought the worst was over with the Low interest rates headed our way, what do you do with thousands of properties like Janice’s that is all wrapped up into, nothing of course only pay and pray that she can eventually pay down enough to get a better mortgage rate someday, once her term is up on the current one that she already has.
When a purchased property with all in, comes in at a couple hundred thousand less than your purchase price at market value, it’s got to be a heart sinker at best.

Condos are just a room in the sky that produces unbelievable municipal property taxes on its little ground footprint, add in builders and realtor profits. Overrated ownership and overpriced properties will be a subject of discussion for the next hundred years, of what happen between 2020 – 2025, once burned will be forever learned, or WILL IT, a new starting generation is born every day, tomorrow our millennials will get all the blame and us old saddle bags will be pushing daisies.

Our new working generation, spending all their hard earned cash on overated ownership is giving up all the fruits of their youth, enjoy a little, you will be old soon enough.

Both my father and grandfather were great savers and knew the value of a dollar, my father use to tell one of my older brothers that he will never have anything, because money burns holes in his pocket and my grandfather had a saying of, a man with a hole in his pocket is playing with his co-ky all day and will never have anything.

Quote of the day: Do not spend what is left after spending, but rather spend what is left after saving.

#34Linda on 09.11.24 at 3:23 pm

I’m acquainted with a couple of Brussels Griffons – ‘Bruno’ looks very much like an Ewok in his photo:)

I’m just presuming ‘Janice’ is actually residing in her condo. A classic example as to why I’d never purchase one – rent, yes. Purchase? Why? Financial disaster & if one wants ‘freedom’, not going to find it owning a condo – especially if you end up with a condo board drunk on power, who regulate the very air being breathed. And God help you if you’ve neighbors who like to live as regulated or more so – recent news regarding one lovely lady who has been complaining/suing her neighbors/condo board for, well, ever because according to her sensitive ears, the neighbors are ‘too noisy’ & the condo board needs to crack down on folks who use their dishwasher, walk across their floors or do horrible things like vacuum. A real bundle of joy, whose latest lawsuit was tossed. Plus she had to pay a minor fine of under $100 according to the news report.

Anyhow, if rates continue to drop as anticipated maybe ‘J’ can get out from under the horrible deal she struck in a few months time. Unless of course the mortgage appraisal also drops further, with her seeing any hope of equity recede like a fever dream……

#35jane24 on 09.11.24 at 3:30 pm

I thought you would like this doggy photo Garth as Griffons naturally have a worried look on their faces even when insanely happy. Perfect look for the Canadian RE situation right now. You wrote articles identical to this one in your 1980s financial advice column in the Toronto Sun. Just the names have changed. You are right – it is indeed never different!

#36tkid on 09.11.24 at 3:33 pm

I’m turning into a dinosaur. It’s the only thing that makes sense.

I’ve got what remains of my nestegg in a 2 year 5% GIC, I own a 1200 ft condo with a 5.7% mortgage I’m working hard to pay off in the next 3 years, and I’m happy.

Good luck to the lady with the condo.

#37Sail Away on 09.11.24 at 3:34 pm

Yeah, house cats are pretty bony with minimal meat.
But they are indeed eaten; sort of like eating guinea pigs in S. America which also have minimal meat.

Cougars are much more robust. Surprisingly, it is white meat similar in many ways to turkey. Lean. Tastes like cougar.

#38Frank on 09.11.24 at 3:41 pm

DELETED

#39crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.24 at 3:42 pm

@#32 Shawn
“You need to visit again. Get up to date”

+++

Yeah.
I golfed Highland Links a few years back in the Fall.
Had the course to myself. It was awesome.
Then drove the Cabot Trail west down to Cheticamp and golfed there.
Had to head back to HFX after that.
I hear the new courses on the southwest side of CB are pretty nice but expensive.

#40Really? Not! on 09.11.24 at 3:43 pm

Amateur landlords and investors drank the kool-aid, and the hype, and the utopian drivel that prices could only go up. To live in their concrete 440 square foot prison, where you can’t even open a window to smell the roses. Oh, right, no roses, no lawn, no real privacy either. Claustrophobic to boot. At least in prison you’d get 3 square meals a day. Lol…NOT!

#41Dogman01 on 09.11.24 at 3:48 pm

13 Ustabe on 09.11.24 at 2:05 pm

I want to see the crap, it allows the opportunity for your effective rebuttal. it exposes the human condition where emotions often trump rational thought.

Your observation is worth reading, if the original comment was not allowed…you would not have had the oppertunity to correct ignorence.

Censorship is a dis-service to discourse.

“To suppress free speech is a double wrong, it violates the rights of the hearer as well as those of the speaker” – Frederick Douglass

#42Faron on 09.11.24 at 3:51 pm

#26 Dr. V on 09.11.24 at 2:54 pm
71 Shawn

“Some FAST government workers.”
————————————————————–

On-line shows application in process. Fingers crossed

Got mine renewed in spring. Most of the slowness was people filling out their forms at the booth. Facepalm.

Passport came in the mail before the early end of the range. Solid!

#43Really? Not! on 09.11.24 at 3:52 pm

Believe me, l’m not mocking these people for their poor decisions. But this situation sounds hopeless, and I know people who seriously regret ever buying a condo. Same goes for those who finance $90,000 dollar pickup trucks over 7 + years, only to realize they’ve created a black hole to pay into, only going underwater way quicker. Good thing our education system teaches future generations sound money principles…NOT!

#44Joseph R on 09.11.24 at 3:53 pm

#15 The Bait on 09.11.24 at 2:13 pm

Harris isn’t responsible for Putin’s behavior. A logical person isn’t responsible for the actions of a mad man.

Trump says lots of things. Maybe you choose to believe him but that’s on you, not on everyone else has to believe him. The world saw in Helsinki, Finland his submissive behaviour with Putin when he sided with Putin over his own intelligence agencies.

Why use sexual violent words like Choke Out and Rear Naked Chuck? It’s a debate, what’s wrong with you?

I don’t think our host would appreciate you use his blog as your personal erotica site.

#45Dr. V on 09.11.24 at 3:55 pm

Subject building is on Joyce beside the skytrain station.

#46Really? Not! on 09.11.24 at 4:00 pm

Did Canadians really think that flipping real estate could actually replace working for a living? Or going hopelessly in debt was prudent, just to keep up with the Jones’? The day of reckoning approaches for possibly the greatest foolz in Canadian history. Shout out to their equally foolish enablers.

#47Grandv!ew on 09.11.24 at 4:03 pm

Just as I mentioned couple days ago….

Real estate in Canada = Financial asset…

-5 times leverage
-At the cost of 9% …?
-Permanent cost of minimum $600/month (no control over this amount at all and possibility of special assessments and outsized increases)
-Negative yields with government imposed rent control increases
-Quality of life in 440sq feet is miserable…

PS: I know this building very well. If I am not mistaken it is on the corner of Joyce street and Vanness Ave.
The kick in the gonads is going to be once they finish identical tower right across from her building.

#48Canadian logic (or lack thereof) on 09.11.24 at 4:07 pm

1. there’s always the bashing of condos vs. “owning dirt”. In Canada you don’t really own either. But apartments in high(er) density building is making sense globally vs. living in a big house, by citizens having non-countryside jobs – because they are great in resolving one of life’s necessities – they provide convenient shelter while allowing time for other pleasant things in life rather than working around the house. A lot of younger folks (40 and under) have no clue how to fix things anyway. Or how to procure services from contractors. Horror stories abound from both condos, but also from house owners who got taken for a ride by contractors for amounts much higher than a special assessment. We’re not hearing very often about such stories here on the condo-bashing blog.

2. in my entire complex (Tri-Cities, GRVA) I’ve been following actual buys&sells for over five years (since before COVID, and during the interest rates storms) and NOBODY lost money. Some made more than others when the resold, but none lost. And condo fees per sqft are about one third of what’s presented in the blog post.

3. why strawman arguments? Janice couldn’t have purchased $700,000 worth of B&D as nobody would have lent her that amount for anything else than RE. She probably had very little to her name to begin with. That’s what’s often leading to wrong decisions. On the other hand, there’s also quite little that she stands to lose, so on balance it’s all good.

4. why are examples being cherrypicked? In this case we’re talking about a smaller-than-average condo, in a not-prime location, financed very unfavorably, and by an inexperienced buyer who clearly had no other options at the time of purchase? This is not the norm. People who bought units to live in them have made on average much better decisions. The story here is depicting precisely the “investor” Garth is praising here for “making rental stock available”.

She lives there. – Garth

#49Andrewski on 09.11.24 at 4:07 pm

DELETED

#50Joseph R on 09.11.24 at 4:17 pm

$600,000 mortgage @ 9% for 25 years:

Payment Every Month $5,035.18
Total of 300 Payments $1,510,553.45
Total Interest Paid $910,553.45

For a shoebox condo.

#51T-rev on 09.11.24 at 4:19 pm

Don’t ever “invest” in shoeboxes in the sky. Terrible, terrible idea. I wouldn’t ever buy one to live in, either. If you can afford dirt and want a house, buy a house. If you can’t, rent whatever it is that fits your budget and lifestyle. Ownership of shoeboxes is best left to the pension funds, REITS, and corps who can afford dozens of entire buildings. Individuals should stay far away from ownership of them (but feel free to live in them- they can be great).

Leveraged speculation is only fun on the way up.

#52Brian on 09.11.24 at 4:19 pm

Widespread problems with U.S. mail system could disrupt voting, election officials warn

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/widespread-problems-with-u-s-mail-system-could-disrupt-voting-election-officials-warn

This could affect mainly Democrat voters as they are more apt to use mail in ballots!

#53James on 09.11.24 at 4:24 pm

This could get very interesting when similar owners get slapped with more vacant home tax charges this winter, when they can’t even find tenants for their overpriced tiny investment apartments.

#54the Jaguar on 09.11.24 at 4:25 pm

9 percent? There is more to this story that what is contained in Garth’s comments….. ++

On a cultural note, CIFF25 is on in Cowtown ( Calgary International Film Festival ). So many interesting films to choose from. I always struggle to pick out a few. Maybe this one with David Bowie, Etta James, Aretha Franklin, Prince…hmmm.
https://ciff2024.eventive.org/films/they-all-came-out-to-montreux-66a2b8b75d933a004fb761b5

This would be a good one for the Pink Snow Falling Guy, more recently known as ‘FLOP’
https://ciff2024.eventive.org/films/yeah-the-boys-66b6c26adc7b5c00a6a72216

One film that isn’t included in the roster is showing at TIFF this friday in Toronto. “The film will make its North American premiere later this week, as scheduled,” TIFF organizers said on Wednesday in a statement. That decision by TIFF came in the face of political pressure from Deputy Canadian Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.

Russians at War will have a North American premiere on Friday afternoon at the Scotiabank Theatre, as originally scheduled. TIFF organizers are expected to beef up security for the film screening, both outside the cinema and in the auditorium where disruption by protesters remains a possibility.
I better not post the link to the trailer or Garth will toast me. Sure makes one think about censorship, art and the public right to know.

#55Really? Not! on 09.11.24 at 4:27 pm

Speaking of desperadoh’s, are the wheels coming off the N.A.T.O. War-Wagon? Think operation Bagration, or perhaps the Battle of the Bulge. And deck chairs being desperately rearranged at the top. A cornered animal is very dangerous, and democracies like Sweden and Finland threw away their cherished neutrality without ever asking permission from their voting public. Paper N.A.T.O. -Paper Stock markets- Paper democracy.

#56Shawn on 09.11.24 at 4:30 pm

Wither the deleveraging

If a pile of people can’t make their mortgage payments then more and more of them won’t.

We should have seen deleveraging as rates rose. Perhaps it is just delayed. And population growth hid some of it. Claims now are that student numbers are down. We shall see.

M2 money supply may be about to head down.

#57Adm Steve-o on 09.11.24 at 4:33 pm

All of this helps confirm what I see and say. Here, there, everywhere. Blood runs in certain streets already. Investors don’t shed any tears over losers. I seriously could not care less for all these dumbkomfs. Many are realtors. Many are RE finance agents. These silly phones truly give us all a front row seat though. Bring it!

#58Quintilian on 09.11.24 at 4:37 pm

Is Janice one of those move up buyers that will set the Fall Real Estate Market on fire, as anticipated by the RE Pumper Machine?

Oh how I envy Janice who is ahead of me on the property ladder.

TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK

#59Shawn on 09.11.24 at 4:38 pm

Bank of Canada balance Sheet Shriveling

After a few weeks of gains, we got a noticeable dip in the Bank of Canada balance sheet and its holdings of government bonds this week. The downtrend in those values is well intact. Tis is quantitative tightening, not loosening. Interesting.

The losses on government bonds that occurred as rates rose have revered sharply. Government of Canada indemnifies for that and the indemnity amount is sharply lower. It will eventually hot zero since the bank won’t see those bonds at a loss.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/banking-and-financial-statistics/bank-of-canada-assets-and-liabilities-weekly-formerly-b2/

Be sure to hit clear and then click to graph any line items you are interested in.

#60Steven Rowlandson on 09.11.24 at 4:39 pm

The big idea behind it all is the big lie that says that people are made of money when in fact they are not.
Landlords, home owners and realtors need a serious reality check which is why some of us are not too happy about banks wimping out by dropping interest rates. Banks and their depositors need the income and real estate investors need a disincentive to borrow excessive amounts of money or raise prices causing a requirement for bigger loans and more inflation.

Getting back to people not being made of money.
I just spent a days pay on a 50″ belt and 2 T- shirts. $78.50 roughly. We will see if it really fixes the wardrobe malfunction problem.

Tomorrow we will be sanding treads and assembling 2 white oak open sided stairs. The wood costs $2,000.
Not sure why white oak costs $9+ per board foot which is about twice as much as red oak. Is it a rare subspecies of oak? Any thoughts on that?

#61Dr. V on 09.11.24 at 4:40 pm

44 JR

“Why use sexual violent words like Choke Out and Rear
Naked Chuck?(sic)”
————————————————————-

From wiki, for Rear naked choke

“The word naked in this context suggests that, unlike other strangulation techniques found in jujutsu/judo, this hold does not require the use of a keikogi (“gi”) or training uniform.”

Apologies if the sarcasm font was on.

No apology if you find this sexual.

#62Steven Rowlandson on 09.11.24 at 4:40 pm

The big idea behind it all is the big lie that says that people are made of money when in fact they are not.
Landlords, home owners and realtors need a serious reality check which is why some of us are not too happy about banks wimping out by dropping interest rates. Banks and their depositors need the income and real estate investors need a disincentive to borrow excessive amounts of money or to raise prices causing a requirement for bigger loans and more inflation.

Getting back to people not being made of money.
I just spent a days pay on a 50″ belt and 2 T- shirts. $78.50 roughly. We will see if it really fixes the wardrobe malfunction problem.

Tomorrow we will be sanding treads and assembling 2 white oak open sided stairs. The wood costs $2,000.
Not sure why white oak costs $9+ per board foot which is about twice as much as red oak. Is it a rare subspecies of oak? Any thoughts on that?

#63Yorkville Renter on 09.11.24 at 4:48 pm

Hey Dolce Vita

I visited Roma and Sicily as part of my Summer trip this year and could not believe how much graffiti is blemishing the Eternal City… gross.

Hopefully, it will get better!

#64Zxcvbnm on 09.11.24 at 4:51 pm

At least she has somewhere to live.
Probably only a couple years out from break-even vs renting. She’s down $150k but you have to consider that she would be renting elsewhere regardless. Actual loss is more like half that. And I’m 2 years she breaks even. Then starts winning. Assuming no price appreciation (or further depreciation) simple calc

Not the end of the world. Those waiting and renting are still worse off

Not a big math guy, eh? – Garth

#65Triplenet on 09.11.24 at 4:56 pm

Sail Away
Re:
Cougars are much more robust. Surprisingly, it is white meat similar in many ways to turkey. Lean. Tastes like cougar.

This is not a p*rn site.
And….
You should not be operating a pleasure craft at night. That is so dangerous and foolish.
If you’re fishing in the dark with a ‘lamp’, that’s illegal.

#66NotNice on 09.11.24 at 5:25 pm

#49 Really? Not! on 09.11.24 at 4:27 pm

fully agree and I might add: Paper money, Paper POTUS

#67Doing my Part on 09.11.24 at 5:29 pm

The other way of looking at it is,

Janice made such such ill advised decisions she is lucky to be in the situation she is in, it could be much worse.

At least she is living in it and not in her car while she subsidizes a renter.

She could be much further underwater and eventually, if she stays long enough, she may resurface.

The lesson she has learned, and the one learned by those reading her story, priceless. If applied moving forward.

And, I watched the debate, Donald Trump looked like a name calling elementary school kid bully up against an educated, restrained professional adult.

It’s unfortunate the Rep’s couldn’t field a qualified candidate, some of the Dem policies remind me of what is happening in Canada right now.

#68Joseph R on 09.11.24 at 5:31 pm

#56 Dr. V on 09.11.24 at 4:40 pm
44 JR

“Why use sexual violent words like Choke Out and Rear
Naked Chuck?(sic)”
————————————————————-

From wiki, for Rear naked choke

“The word naked in this context suggests that, unlike other strangulation techniques found in jujutsu/judo, this hold does not require the use of a keikogi (“gi”) or training uniform.”

Apologies if the sarcasm font was on.

————————————————–

Thank you Dr.V

I did not know that. And yes, the word naked threw me off. I didn’t want to Google it or Urban Dictionary before replying.

I ask for The Bait to accept my apologies for jumping to the wrong conclusion about using his expressions.

#69Michael in-north-york on 09.11.24 at 5:35 pm

#134 Zxcvbnm on 09.11.24 at 11:04 am

I feel shame sharing a planet with anyone pro-abortion.
===

When does your spaceship take off?

And don’t be in a hurry to come back. Slavers aren’t needed on this planet.

#70The owls are not what they appear... on 09.11.24 at 5:42 pm

Russian troll…

#18 The Bait on 09.11.24 at 2:24 pm

#71Sail Away on 09.11.24 at 5:43 pm

#50 Triplenet on 09.11.24 at 4:56 pm

You should not be operating a pleasure craft at night. That is so dangerous and foolish.

If you’re fishing in the dark with a ‘lamp’, that’s illegal.

———-

Boating at night is the best. We do it all the time. My favourite is heading to the banks at night weaving through the commercial trollers. Will definitely be out again tonight.

LED lights on lures and within 1m of the lure are fully legal.

A ‘lamp’, though… hmmm… the boat stern light could definitely double as a lamp. But then it’s a legal safety requirement. We do jig squid at night in the light of both stern and deck lights. Let’s call it open to interpretation.

It would be pretty hard to see without a light because it’s, you know… nighttime :-)

#72RAH on 09.11.24 at 5:43 pm

#1 Dolce Vita on 09.11.24 at 1:20 pm

#2 Dolce Vita on 09.11.24 at 1:26 pm

===================================

Yikes..

AI on the loose !!!

#73Faron on 09.11.24 at 5:44 pm

Well, finished the first bit of my bike tour today (had a mid-day obligation). Yesterday and the day before were 142 and 125km days with a vertical mile of vert in each. Crossed the island in a day. Went from Qualicum to Salt Spring in a day. Food in, kms out. Stumbled across countless scenic gems; many in the form of clear, emerald pools set in moss-clad, narrow canyons. Lots of granodiorite and even proper granite on the margin of the island.

Best drivers were on the most remote roads. Especially the working trucks. Worst was the vehicular assault on me by a dude rolling coal shouting “I’m gonna get you fa&&ot”. Made two passes. I was on the far side of a meter wide shoulder. Paired nicely with the “Eff Trudeau” paraphernalia. Just outside of Nanaimo. Colour me surprised. Terrible human.

People who drink Tim Hortons coffee like to throw their trash out the window. Likewise Old Milwaukee and Lucky Lager. Lots of busted tie downs. Those zip ties you are using to lash your gear? No. Bungee cords? Also no. Cheapest ratchet straps Canadian Tire sells? Forget it.

Best road find was a surfboard. One I would love to own. $1200 piece of gear. It had launched off a car into a defile. Only someone biking slowly by would see it. I retrieved it and looked for owner info. None. Set it where highly visible in case the owner came looking. Km 23 on the Alberni side of the Bamfield road if you like to ride thruster fish.

Worst find was a pair of adult diapers. Wide berth.

I’ve finished my Ramen and Sapporo. Back home for snuggles from the hound then dinner with my wife when she gets off work. Viva.

#74Lolo on 09.11.24 at 5:55 pm

I just checked Zealty.com on this building. Today there are 18 listings. I see a 2bd (600ish sqft) asking $690K. IMHO, it’s crazy price now for that size and location, but crazier price then.

#75Shawn on 09.11.24 at 5:59 pm

Grocery Prices can be strange.

Costco in Alberta today:

Large package of Pork Loin pork chops at $8.99 per kg. ($4.08 per pound)

Blueberries, product of Canada, $23.51 per kg $10.66 per pound. Seriously?

I will be eating pork chops.

And the whole cooked chickens for $7.99

Also Costco’s price on Water melons was at least double what I am seeing in the grocery stores. Always thought I could trust Costco but maybe no more.

#76GrumpyPanda on 09.11.24 at 6:16 pm

Faron #29. GEO group helps people who made poor life choices. Kind of like Garth. If you can come up with a better solution please elaborate.

#77Shawn on 09.11.24 at 6:16 pm

Janice’s underwater Condo:

Well at least she doesn’t have ANY equity tied up in her home.

#78Wrk.dover on 09.11.24 at 6:21 pm

#50 Joseph R on 09.11.24 at 4:17 pm
$600,000 mortgage @ 9% for 25 years:
Payment Every Month $5,035.18
For a shoebox condo.
____________________________________-

$165/night

#79The Bait on 09.11.24 at 6:27 pm

#68 Joseph R on 09.11.24 at 5:31 pm
#56 Dr. V on 09.11.24 at 4:40 pm
44 JR

No sweat. I was indeed going for an MMA cage fight reference.

#29 Faron on 09.11.24 at 3:00 pm

Harris 1, Trump 0.

Ha ha ha. You score this based on what? Irritating your opponent or providing substance.

“You’re in office Harris, stop talking so much and go wake up Joe and do the things you keep saying you’re going to do.”

This is factual and painfully obvious each and every time it is said. What? Joe won’t help get these good policies and plans done?

The nonsense. Trump 2, Harris 0 is what you mean.

#80Russ on 09.11.24 at 6:31 pm

@Ustabe

I’m sorry to hear you were triggered by me in the comments section.
However, I have no regret in presenting what I believe is factual information, which came to me from a local newspaper article.

It’s seems you are the one jumping into a prejudicial assumption. I recall the article mentioned the proprietor stating the meat was for personal use. It makes sense back in the day that a guy would use the company freezer for practical personal use, even though it is against health regulations.

The meme of the day, in regards to any cultural cuisine that was different from ours was, “… and it tastes like chicken.” (with grin)

Any comment on the Philippine’ food information?

Regards, R

#81Chalkie on 09.11.24 at 6:31 pm

#75 Shawn
Plus you pay to shop at COSTCO, American style shopping.
COSTCO is famous in supplying odd size cartons and containers, ie: most people have trouble with math.

#82IHCTD9 on 09.11.24 at 6:38 pm

#50 Joseph R on 09.11.24 at 4:17 pm
$600,000 mortgage @ 9% for 25 years:

Payment Every Month $5,035.18
Total of 300 Payments $1,510,553.45
Total Interest Paid $910,553.45

For a shoebox condo.

—————

What a waste of blood, sweat and tears.

She’s going to have a hell of a time selling that tiny dog crate too.

#83Travelling on 09.11.24 at 6:40 pm

Here’s the sad thing.

Janice continues to make her payments for maybe 2-3 years. At that point, she might be back in the black a bit. Maybe a job loss occurs then. Janice starts missing her payments. Her mortgagor goes and forecloses on the condo (let’s not forget, this isn’t a bank who lent her the money but the builder – this won’t make the evening news considering how outrageous the original terms were and no bank will touch her with a ten foot pole). Janice now needs to find a new place to live. The builder sells the condo to its rental property arm. Janice finally gets a new job and rents her old condo from the rental property arm of the builder.

#84Bankersorta on 09.11.24 at 6:47 pm

Dolce Vita on 09.11.24 at 1:20 pm
It will get better Canada, esp. for you Kids, have faith in the country as I do.
****************************************
Well that statement is a bit of a stretch coming from someone who lives full time in Italy, has most if not all his money invested in Mr. US Market, and if I recall correctly continues to complain about the amount of tax he pays on his Canadian pension and the tiny portion of investments he hasn’t unloaded in Canada by not completing the non residency forms thereby triggering a deemed disposition of his Canadian assets… but I could be wrong since I tend to skip many of your posts picking apart stats Canada wealth and income quaintiles(?). You certainly are *living the life*.

#85crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.24 at 6:58 pm

@#73 Faron.
“Worst find was a pair of adult diapers.”

+++
Sounds like Ponzie was in Bamfield at some point this summer….on second thought….You said “adult”….diapers.

#86crossbordershopper on 09.11.24 at 6:58 pm

real estate is a risky business when its 5x leverage and then the impossible happens and real estate values go down. The second point is the negative cash flow if you rent it, in her case she was owner occupant.
There are many small time landlords out there looking for a leveraged investment trying grow some equity, its a hassle and a struggle.
Sure I got mine for free without a mortgage and even then its a hassle sometimes. I am not a big fan of high leverage.
I own a lot of income oriented investments and currently you can get some good long term returns via a number of leveraged clo , bdc, close end, cc funds etc. without the stress and problems
if your a lady who wants to work and live in a shoebox shure go ahead, lousy life, paying lots of money for nothing, taxes, insurance, strata etc.

#87Calgary retiree on 09.11.24 at 7:07 pm

Why. No comment on the debate? Tomorrow hopefully?

#88Mike on 09.11.24 at 7:17 pm

DELETED

#89jess on 09.11.24 at 7:20 pm

https://www.therecord.com/news/waterloo-region/how-a-florida-fraud-connects-to-a-landmark-preston-building-destroyed-in-a-suspicious-fire/article_f1ead5cb-a4af-5de0-8b25-5b19384a5b15.html

#90Dragonfly58 on 09.11.24 at 7:46 pm

Triplenet # 50. What could possibly be wrong with pleasure boating at night ? As long as you know how to navigate / chartwork, and use fixed navigation lights , bells etc there is no problem at all. I have logged hundreds of hours sailing at night. Deadheads are something of a problem, but many are just as hidden, just below the surface during daylight hours.

#91The Bait on 09.11.24 at 8:01 pm

#68 Joseph R on 09.11.24 at 5:31 pm
#56 Dr. V on 09.11.24 at 4:40 pm
44 JR

No sweat. I was indeed going for an MMA cage fight reference.

#29 Faron on 09.11.24 at 3:00 pm

Harris 1, Trump 0.

Ha ha ha. Sure. More like Harris 0, Trump 2.

#70 The owls are not what they appear…

The Owl is Hollow!

#92RAH on 09.11.24 at 8:05 pm

A new bank report confirms what we’ve told you for a while. Condos are like boats – holes in the water where you throw money. They’re in oversupply. Losing equity and value. Yielding negative cash flow for investors. With ownership costs that have only one direction which to travel.

What a disaster. Ask Janice.

===============================
COMMENT:

First of all..I don’t like to beat up on people’s mistakes…

The finger pointing can go on a rampage.

Crystal Ball:
I would advise people to drive down Oak St., Granville St. and Cambie St. in Vancouver.

One will see the spectrum of projects on – hold ..collapsed,…commencing…near -finishing and all the way to finished.

Many, if not most, of these units will be in the same situation as “Janice”.

We are effectively in UNcharted territory re: Real Estate,… myself having lived through and experienced several Real Estate cycles.

I predict and envision completed projects will also have another spectrum..but one of owners that paid cash(no mortgage)…investors and other owners with mortgages.

This spectrum of “ownership viability” will have dire consequences for the new stratas to try to maintain various funds they are obligated to..such as strata fees…contingency funds, etc.
etc.

Conclusion: Gonna get ugly…

#93Flop… on 09.11.24 at 8:12 pm

“We told you this was coming. And still we’re pushing home ownership on the kids. Shame on us all.”- Thor Turner.

Surely, with countless hours of various categories, 10’s of thousands of posts on Vancouver real estate, I get a pass?

What was I supposed to do, buy everything on the market to keep the young ones safe…

M50BC

#94GAV on 09.11.24 at 8:13 pm

#13 Ustabe on 09.11.24 at 2:05 pm

“In the old days there were occasional raids on Canadian-Chinese restaurants and charges laid for having cat meat in the freezer. At least in our area, mid-Island, when I was a youth.

Cheers, R

Absolute racist trash.”

Actually, I know exactly which restaurant Russ is referring to. It was in the deep dark heart of Harewood. I believe it made the local papers at the time.

Just part of the legends growing up there.

#95Cow Man on 09.11.24 at 8:14 pm

The first election campaign worked on was for Garth Turner in 1988. Worked in most elections at all levels since. After watching last nights debate, I decided on a new strategy. “Never vote, it only encourages them.”

#96Mattl on 09.11.24 at 8:16 pm

#60 Steven Rowlandson on 09.11.24 at 4:39 pm

Getting back to people not being made of money.
I just spent a days pay on a 50″ belt and 2 T- shirts. $78.50 roughly. We will see if it really fixes the wardrobe malfunction problem.
———————————————————-

This schtick is getting old. We are to believe you make 10 bucks an hour as a carpenter? Guy mowing lawns are making 25 an hour, you would make 35 on a framing crew. You seemed to be the only tradesman in Canada that missed the goldrush of the past decade.

#97ogdoad on 09.11.24 at 8:21 pm

At this point, I’d call it our culture.

Og

#98TurnerNation on 09.11.24 at 8:25 pm

I am waiting for the usual Leftees to trot out the ‘but muh clean drinking water’ trope.
How about all the resource Royalty contract monies go to this end?
1.7 billion dollars is “non-profit” wink wink. 1.7b dollars out to a select few. Not for profit!

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2024HOUS0171-001469
Indigenous people on and off reserve in B.C. will have access to approximately 1,600 new affordable rental homes through partnerships between the Province, through BC Housing, and Indigenous non-profit housing providers.
The second set of homes selected through the Building BC: Indigenous Housing Fund (IHF) includes 41 on- and off-reserve projects that will provide 1,662 affordable rental homes. It includes 667 on-reserve homes for First Nations members and 995 off-reserve homes for Indigenous people. A community breakdown of projects is included in the backgrounder.

The announcement was made at the Fraser Region Aboriginal Friendship Centre in Surrey, one of the proponents receiving funding for 65 units of off-reserve housing for Indigenous families and Elders. The IHF is a $1.7-billion provincial program, administered by BC Housing, to support government’s target of delivering 3,500 homes for Indigenous families, elders, individuals and people with disabilities on and off reserve.

#99Bilbo on 09.11.24 at 8:29 pm

DELETED

#100TurnerNation on 09.11.24 at 8:43 pm

Eat your heart out Europe. Get ready to welcome the Potential New Canadians® in your city or town or village.
There is nothing Migrants cannot do in 2024.
Why this is almost like a business.

“”Ottawa is considering a plan to relocate tens of thousands of asylum seekers across Canada to take the pressure off of Quebec and Ontario. The immigration minister said Wednesday he will use what levers he has available to get uncooperative provinces to take more.

According to a federal government briefing document obtained by National Post, 235,825 people are seeking asylum in Canada, with the bulk making their claims in Ontario and Quebec, Canada’s two most populous provinces. But if Canada were to find a way to distribute asylum seekers around the country based on provincial populations — similar to what premiers asked for following a July meeting — tens of thousands of refugees would be spread out around the country.
The numbers are significantly smaller for the remainder of the country.”” (nationalpost.com)

#10145north on 09.11.24 at 8:46 pm

A new bank report confirms what we’ve told you for a while. Condos are like boats – holes in the water where you throw money. They’re in oversupply. Losing equity and value. Yielding negative cash flow for investors. With ownership costs that have only one direction which to travel.

Gulp. A loss of 23% in two years.

Mark on the Canadian Real Estate Show says lots of people moved into the real estate market in the period 2019 – 2022 but they’re trapped. “The exits are closed”. ( I tried to find Mark’s last name but it’s not there. )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOvCcD_rXOU

Ron Butler says investors drive Canadian real estate. He says that small-time investors are not coming back.

This is a big chunk out of the middle class.

#10245north on 09.11.24 at 8:46 pm

Ustabe Those are my bona fides that allow me to unequivocally say Chinese restaurants do not and have not served cat meat.

thanks for your post

#103Flop… on 09.11.24 at 8:47 pm

I get a yearly boot allowance, and a yearly clothing allowance that I’m allowed to let Terry Taxpayer foot the bill.

I’ve done that before, but the other day I bought a couple of tank tops from Dollar Tree for 2 bucks each.

I didn’t know at the time what I was gonna do with them, after all they are suitable Australian wedding attire, but after wearing them I found them comfortable enough to do 8 hours labour in, so I’m gonna wear them to work.

I’m not going to submit the receipts and sink Canada anymore into the red.

$4 for some tank tops, don’t worry Canada, I’ve got this…

M50BC

#104Dr. V on 09.11.24 at 8:59 pm

73 Faron

Kudos!! Nice vertical!

Agreed on the pro truck drivers. Have had many good experiences with friendly toots and waves. I think they
appreciate momentum as much as cyclists.

Have been a victim of rolling coal only once. Put me down as “I dont get it”. I want a sticker that says “my other bike is an F150”. Maybe that will help.

#105yvr_lurker on 09.11.24 at 9:06 pm

Most of us can agree that it was ill-advised to pay so much for such a little condo in an area that is not so interesting, and on such unfavorable terms with the ridiculous 9% mortgage. She should have waited and just rented. However, going forward, with the way that Vancouver will soon be replicating how they live in Seoul or Hong Kong in high-rises, and where having a lawn mower is the ultimate status symbol, there will be no other option for many people than to buy a small condo. Hopefully, at better terms. As my good friend who lives in Hong Kong has told me many times, one ultimate goal there for people who come from working class families and who grow up in subsidized basic housing, is to spend 30+ years getting an education, being at the top of their class, and then rising to the top of their field. The ultimate aim is to be able to purchase a free-market upscale 2 bedroom 800 sq.ft. apartment that might be across the street from the rundown subsidized unit they grew up in.

Vancouver is slowly heading in that direction….

#106Flop… on 09.11.24 at 9:11 pm

The area where the lady bought the condo is not the nicest.

Mrs Flop makes the pilgrimage to the gym through that way.

I ask her when she gets home looking pumped, did you have a good workout, or are your biceps bulging from pushing drug addled people out of the way at Joyce sky-train station…

M50BC

#107Shawn on 09.11.24 at 9:15 pm

Costco?

#81 Chalkie on 09.11.24 at 6:31 pm
#75 Shawn
Plus you pay to shop at COSTCO, American style shopping.
COSTCO is famous in supplying odd size cartons and containers, ie: most people have trouble with math.

***************************
Yes the $65 membership fee is part of the Costco model. Or pay $130 and get an executive membership and earn 2% rewards back. Most members can easily pay for their membership fee based on savings.

Costco is more famous for having the lowest costs. It makes high profits despite its (usually) far lower prices.

American style shopping? Costco has far more stores per capita in Canada versus the U.S. – partly due to more competition in the U.S.

If you refuse to shop at Costco due to the membership fee you are not doing your wallet any favor. If you are single and don’t buy in bulk (or live in a 400 square foot Condo with no room to store anything) then Costco is not for you.

Costco is an absolute powerhouse of a business. It benefits its customers and its owners. I’m both.

If it doesn’t always have the lowest price on each and every item in the store I can pick and choose.

If you think Costco’s success comes from odd sized containers, you need to think again.

#108Ronaldo on 09.11.24 at 9:22 pm

Never heard of “rolling coal” before so checked it out. Interesting. Can’t say that I’ve witnessed any on the island.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolling_coal

#109blobby on 09.11.24 at 9:22 pm

9%?!?! What’s the monthly on that?

#110Wrk.dover on 09.11.24 at 9:25 pm

Just for the record; during night’s debate I made a crack about Trumps poor strategy at some point, and my wife blurted out “angry old man”. I asked “me?”. Then she busted out laughing and said, “No… Trump… you know how to laugh at yourself, and you do it all the time, he can’t laugh at all.”

#111crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.24 at 9:25 pm

@#103 Flop’s Finances
“I get a yearly boot allowance, and a yearly clothing allowance that I’m allowed to let Terry Taxpayer foot the bill.”

+++
No offence to the Flopster.
It always amazed me that a large majority of govt workers get “clothing allowances” ie free safety boots, etc.) when regular ( non govt workers) cannot write off” their safety boots, hard hats , safety glasses, etc which are MANDATORY on ALL work sites.
Work boots are $200, hard hats, glasses, vests, ear protection etc. are easily another $200 and yet we cannot claim them under our tool allowance as tax deductable.
Seems fair.
Free work boots etc for doing inspections, site visits, etc which ultimately result in…..more paper work for the workers..

#112crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.24 at 9:28 pm

Foodbanks across Canada are seeing record numbers of visits.
54% of parents surveyed are worried they won’t have enough money to feed their kids.

But don’t worry.
Inflation is over.

Nobody said it is over. The rate is vastly reduced. – Garth

#113blobby on 09.11.24 at 9:31 pm

#64 Zxcvbnm on 09.11.24 at 4:51 pm
Quote : “Probably only a couple years out from break-even vs renting. She’s down $150k but you have to consider that she would be renting elsewhere regardless”

Er.. She’s down $150k if she sells, on TOP of her mortgage/strata/etc payments for the last 2 years! I’d hate to think what mortgage payments at 9% are on that.

For context, I rent a 3 bedroom detached house admittedly slightly further out from downtown than she is (but still easily drivable if I really wanted to go downtown) for less than $2.5k a month. I’ve paid a total of around $50k in rent in 2 years.. Her Strata fees ALONE are $650 a month!

And then, mortgage, repairs, etc etc.. Its in Vancouver, so likelyhood of needing a re-sealing (or other major building maintenance) at the request/demand of the strata within a decade are high too…

How on earth is she “close” to breaking even?

#114The Donald on 09.11.24 at 9:42 pm

Kamala’s people will eat all your dogs, including Bruno!

#115Doug t on 09.11.24 at 10:15 pm

“And still we’re pushing home ownership on the kids.”

YUP – its how a pyramid scheme works lol – keep pulling in new blood with the promise of future profit lol – it’s an old one but a good one – it’s all Canada is hinged on

#116Enya on 09.11.24 at 10:23 pm

#37 Sail Away

Was talking to bylaw enforcement officer few years back.

He was at a big park enforcing off-leash complaints. I asked him if business was good and we starter talking. He noted that one of the top complaints in this park was people feeding ducks and then catching them to kill and apparently eat. Fascinating. Not far from dogs and cats being caught. This on a major city.

#117Flop… on 09.11.24 at 10:28 pm

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.24 at 9:25 pm

@#103 Flop’s Finances

“I get a yearly boot allowance, and a yearly clothing allowance that I’m allowed to let Terry Taxpayer foot the bill.”
+++
No offence to the Flopster.
It always amazed me that a large majority of govt workers get “clothing allowances” ie free safety boots, etc.) when regular ( non govt workers) cannot write off” their safety boots, hard hats , safety glasses, etc which are MANDATORY on ALL work sites.
Work boots are $200, hard hats, glasses, vests, ear protection etc. are easily another $200 and yet we cannot claim them under our tool allowance as tax deductable.
Seems fair.
Free work boots etc for doing inspections, site visits, etc which ultimately result in…..more paper work for the workers..

///////////////////////////////////

I get the Helly Hanson boots for $169 and Terry Taxpayer foots the bill.

Some guys get top of the line boots for $400

With my size 13/14 feet, that’s roughly $13 per inch.

I try not to put the boot in…

M50BC

#118Zxcvbnm on 09.11.24 at 10:29 pm

Is she 10 years from breaking even vs rent? A million?

You gotta live somewhere. This lady is just way overpaying on her “rent.” But it’s still a rent to own situation.

Renting the same unit would be approx $2k let’s say.

After two years she’s down $150k PLUS $650/month on condo fees then.

Assuming rent stays flat forever (hahaha) that’s somewhere around 111 months. Let’s say 10 years. Year 11+ she’s beating rent then.

I’m just saying that an inflection point exists that eventually sees her break even. I’m not a realtor. And I rent. This example is the almost the worst Garth could find and it’s not even that bad.

I wonder what my YoY rental increases are.

And yeah, of course I’ve ignored opportunity cost of downpayment etc. add 5 years. Add 10. W/e

Over a long enough timeline owning wins vs renting.

Not in 440 square feet. – Garth

#119Ponzius Pilatus on 09.11.24 at 10:54 pm

#118

Over a long enough timeline owning wins vs renting.
————————
Google: Opportunity cost.

#120DON on 09.11.24 at 11:19 pm

#64 Zxcvbnm on 09.11.24 at 4:51 pm
At least she has somewhere to live.
Probably only a couple years out from break-even vs renting. She’s down $150k but you have to consider that she would be renting elsewhere regardless. Actual loss is more like half that. And I’m 2 years she breaks even. Then starts winning. Assuming no price appreciation (or further depreciation) simple calc

Not the end of the world. Those waiting and renting are still worse off

Not a big math guy, eh? – Garth

********
Sounds like someone attended the The Greater Hopium Realtor Logic educational seminar.

Yikes! Big Ball and CHAIN in the ‘good times’. Stress makes life hellish. Treading water for months or years. Gotta wonder how many more…that’s the real question that needs to be answered.

#121RAH on 09.11.24 at 11:20 pm

#87 Calgary retiree on 09.11.24 at 7:07 pm

Why. No comment on the debate? Tomorrow hopefully?

=================================

COMMENT:

I watched the Debate last nite ….
Will comment more tomorrow..

Till then…been digesting it all day(including research)

The actual WINNER was blatantly obvious !!!!!!
(Cue foreshadowing)….

#122DON on 09.12.24 at 12:01 am

#87 Calgary retiree on 09.11.24 at 7:07 pm
Why. No comment on the debate? Tomorrow hopefully?

*********
The Saturday Night Live skit this Saturday will be the deciding factor.

#123RAH on 09.12.24 at 12:19 am

In addition…

NFL fans…did you see the video re Miami Dolphins Tyreek Hill arrest?
Man….brutal !!!
Cops are scary.

Also here in BC a video finally released about a person shot dead ASAP by (2)VPD when they turned a corner…looks like cold -blooded murder.

Another Video explains how and why Hotels are “in cahoots” ripping off clients with exhorbitant rates using a “middleman AI”…very insidious.

On topic of condos…
….An article investigates a Florida condo (4) years old full of deficiencies…this lawsuit will be 100’s of million $$$. This buttresses my view to stay away from new builds..look at an older established strata that is established and has few if any vacancies and errors and omissions which have also been identified and addressed.
Aka ” kick the tires” !

#124Sail Away on 09.12.24 at 12:20 am

#116 Enya on 09.11.24 at 10:23 pm
#37 Sail Away

Was talking to bylaw enforcement officer few years back.

He was at a big park enforcing off-leash complaints. I asked him if business was good and we starter talking. He noted that one of the top complaints in this park was people feeding ducks and then catching them to kill and apparently eat. Fascinating. Not far from dogs and cats being caught. This on a major city.

—————

Makes sense. A proper duck is delicious.

#125Sail Away on 09.12.24 at 12:33 am

Still no joy on the nighttime salmon. Either they don’t bite, or my technique needs more tweaking.

I do absolutely love being out here at night enjoying a fine cigar with the moon above, motor muttering, commercial traffic passing silently. Pure peace and quiet. All is right in the world.

#126DON on 09.12.24 at 12:41 am

#94 GAV on 09.11.24 at 8:13 pm
#13 Ustabe on 09.11.24 at 2:05 pm

“In the old days there were occasional raids on Canadian-Chinese restaurants and charges laid for having cat meat in the freezer. At least in our area, mid-Island, when I was a youth.

Cheers, R

Absolute racist trash.”

Actually, I know exactly which restaurant Russ is referring to. It was in the deep dark heart of Harewood. I believe it made the local papers at the time.

Just part of the legends growing up there.

********
Harewood…didn’t the realtors renamed it the ‘University District’ to change the appeal.

#127Swimming in a river of grief on 09.12.24 at 1:27 am

Having training as an appraiser in BC, once upon a time, but not wanting to pile on Janice and everyone in her position, the reality of her situation is that her position is worse than it presents.

In the field of appraisal we provide “measured guesstimates” not accuracy, unless it’s an appraisal for tax purposes and then our word is law. Real estate is fluid, prices can change from block to block.

In her building alone comparables show a wide range of ‘value’. The floor is $537,000. In a down market like today offers can only come in lower. In addition banks and courts allow additional ‘margin’.

But Janice, don’t lose hope. Minister Marc is sending another “at least” 35,000 new buyers top up the excess to alleviate the pain in Liberal ridings in Ontario and Quebec.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/canada-asylum-seekers

As if there isn’t a rental stock catastrophe already happening in BC. Where are Millard Migrants going to sleep? Will our worst nightmare come true and new government mandates force home owners to take migrants into “ underutilized bedrooms”? 35,000 new bodies won’t help…..at all.

This is actually an NDP initiative. They stated on the record already that “ we don’t have a housing problem, we have a underutilzed spare bedroom problem”. No Garth dont name call please. I didn’t do it.

Back to poor Janice, she’s screwed, she allowed her emotions and lack of education to sweep all good sense away. It’s a syndrome in investing of all kinds. Uneducated persons assume the future will repeat itself to their advantage.

We have a new guy coming in. He’s famous for his temper flare ups, accuses people like Janice of greed and moral corruption. He wants to tighten the reins. Does that mean our houses aren’t our own any more. There’s a lot to think about here.

#128Steven Rowlandson on 09.12.24 at 6:27 am

Janice needs a tent or an RV. She also needs to sell the condo, go bankrupt and walk away from the debt as an alternative to the MAID program and avoid buying or renting a place to live for the rest of her life if need be.
Treat real estate like it was a dose of HIV, Ebola Zaire or the Bubonic Plague. One last thing, stay out of debt and save like Scrooge if possible. Canada is not a place to live until you see real estate prices and rents fall to one cent on the dollar and people get shamed or worse for treating real estate as an investment or playing the Monopoly game in any way shape or form….

#129crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.12.24 at 8:14 am

@#116 Enya
“He noted that one of the top complaints in this park was people feeding ducks and then catching them to kill and apparently eat.”
+++
Yep, police arrested a person a while back for feeding and grabbing geese in Stanley Park….too many fat, lazy geese there at the best of times.
Years ago ( 1980’s) , there was a news story about in East Van near where I lived some kids were playing and noticed smoke pouring out of an open garage door.
They investigated and to their horror discovered a man roasting a ( obviously) dead dog over a fire.
Police, fire dept arrived and put out the fire.
The man was charged with cruelty to an animal and a fire without a permit.
His lawyer had the cruelty charge dropped because….the Crown couldnt prove the dog died a painful death….
Different cultures, different foods.
Some people dont eat pork, some dont eat shellfish. Some eat everything that walks, crawls, slithers, swims flys and/or grows in dirt.

#130Dharma Bum on 09.12.24 at 9:07 am

#73 Faron

That really sounds like it was an amazing adventure.

I love finding scenic gems, especially when I am prepared with my photography gear.

I don’t think I have the stamina or strength to ride like that, though. These days I have to let the Subaru Outback do the work.

The encounters with those road rage drivers is disturbing – be careful out there.

And Tim Horton coffee drinkers?

Ooooofa! Swill guzzling swine.

#131Dharma Bum on 09.12.24 at 9:11 am

I feel bad for Janice.

That situation must be stressful as hell.

I would lose what little hair I have left.

At this point, what are her options to at least cut her losses and start from scratch?

#132crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.12.24 at 9:26 am

@#127 Swimming in a River of bs
“We have a new guy coming in. He’s famous for his temper flare ups, accuses people like Janice of greed and moral corruption. He wants to tighten the reins. Does that mean our houses aren’t our own any more.”

+++
Who are you talking about?
Carney?
Would he be foolish enough to take over at this late stage and run the locomotive on the Liberal train of tears into a looming wall of electoral fury?

#133SunShowers on 09.12.24 at 9:29 am

“Nobody said it is over. The rate is vastly reduced. – Garth”

Let’s say you live in a rent controlled apartment and your rent goes up by 5% every year pretty predictably.

$2000, $2100, $2205, $2315, $2431, and so on.

Now let’s say one of those years rent goes up 30% instead before going back to 5% the following year.

$2000, $2100, $2730, $2866, $3010

Imagine wondering why people are still hurting for money even though the rate of inflation has gone back to normal. Even though the rate is back to normal, those years of through-the-roof inflation has been baked into that new normal, so unless those years are somehow deflated out or compensated for, there is going to be pain.

#134Sail Away on 09.12.24 at 10:41 am

#151 Lorne on 09.12.24 at 12:03 am

Commercial trollers do not fish after dark….because salmon do not generally bite after dark. Might want to take the hint.

—————

We shall see. Anecdotally, salmon are active at sunset, turn off for a few hours, and then become active again around midnight along with the bait.

Might have to add a midnight shift. Like night hunting… wake up middle of the night, gear up while talking in whispers, wait and watch in the hushed dark, then spotlight over the shoulder illuminating the white-painted iron sight pin…

Nostalgia!

Desperado — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate (2024)

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